Comment

Barry Jones
My last election

For every complex problem there is an answer which is clear, simple and wrong.
– H. L. Mencken

I will turn 93 in October. On the balance of probabilities, the federal election of May 3, 2025, will be my last.

Going into the poll, I predicted this would be the last victory for a hegemonic party: a small majority for Labor, with the possibility of a hung parliament. I was far too cautious.

I underestimated the shambolic nature of the Coalition campaign and that the backlash against Peter Dutton was even stronger than it had been against Scott Morrison. Many Greens-inclined citizens voted strategically for the ALP, and federal Labor’s aggregate vote in Victoria increased despite hostility to the state government.

The ALP campaign was expertly managed by Paul Erickson, the party’s national secretary, and ranks with Gough Whitlam’s “It’s time!” win in 1972, Bob Hawke’s in 1983, Paul Keating’s in 1993 and Kevin Rudd’s in 2007. Its advertising, including AI-based “narrowcasting”, was far superior, as was its internal polling.

Nevertheless, despite the ALP’s decisive win, with a record majority, the trend away from the two hegemonic groups continues, although less sharply than in 2022.

The ALP has a primary vote of 34.68 per cent. The Coalition in its various forms has 32.17 per cent. Others, including the Greens, community independents, One Nation, Katter’s Australian Party and the Jacqui Lambie Network, receive the remaining 33.15 per cent.

It is difficult to see how the Coalition could win 33 more seats in 2028 to form government with a one-seat majority.

In December 1975, after the Dismissal, when the two-party system seemed set in concrete, Gough Whitlam’s ALP suffered a devastating defeat. Its primary vote was 42.8 per cent. In 2025, the two-party preferred result was Labor 54.73 per cent to the Coalition’s 45.27 per cent.

Despite the excellence of our preferential voting electoral system and the outstanding role of the Australian Electoral Commission, not to mention Antony Green at the ABC, there were some anomalies.

The Greens, with a primary vote of 11.85 per cent, held only one seat, Ryan, in the House of Representatives.

The National Party aggregate vote is harder to estimate. It won 15 seats in the House of Representatives, six each in Queensland and New South Wales, and three in Victoria. It polled 3.9 per cent in its own name, but in Queensland it was an uneasy partner in the Liberal National Party. A reasonable estimate of the total would be about 7 per cent. Senator Bridget McKenzie said the National Party had “a cracker of a result”.

Years ago I had some professional engagement with Peter Dutton and found him open to new ideas in eye health. His concession speech was generous, even gracious.

Yet historical precedent lengthened the odds against him. With one exception – Andrew Fisher in 1909 – the first new leader of the opposition after a change of government has never gone on to become prime minister. Since 1914, no new government has been defeated after a single term, except for the government of James Scullin (1929-31). He was elected in calamitous times, as the Great Depression hit and Labor split to both Left and Right.

Dutton made one piece of history: he was the first opposition leader to lose his own seat.

The Coalition slogan in the 2025 election – “Get Australia Back on Track” – was spectacularly dumb. It contained the gratuitous suggestion that voters made a mistake when they rejected Scott Morrison in 2022.

An even more spectacular failure was the Coalition’s misreading of the result of the Voice referendum in 2023. The 60 per cent “No” vote, pushed by the opposition, was seen as a predictor of a major collapse of the ALP.

Of Labor’s 77 seats, only 27 voted “Yes” and 52 had a “Yes” vote more than 10 per cent lower than the ALP vote had been in 2022. Nyunggai Warren Mundine and Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price insisted that the Voice proposal went too far, while Senator Lidia Thorpe and some others on the Left urged a “No” vote because it did not go far enough.

The Coalition used the slogan “If you don’t know, vote no”. It worked for them in 2023 and against them in 2025. In referendums “Don’t knows”, “Don’t cares” and “Nothing to do with me’s” invariably vote “No”, which is why they rarely succeed. With an election, someone is always elected, often by a small margin.

Not one of the “No”-voting ALP seats from the referendum voted for the Coalition in 2025. Oddly, Senator Price does not seem to have grasped this.

The Voice referendum result was turned on its head by the weird reluctance of the Coalition to answer fundamental questions about the cost of its policies. They had three years to do so but were too lazy to tackle the issues. A few sentences trickled out in the final week, but it was not enough. “Don’t knows” voted “No” to the Coalition in 2025.

Following the near-historic wipeout of Coalition seats, David Littleproud was re-elected as National Party leader, defeating Matt Canavan, who saw Rockhampton as a model for Australia’s future and coal as the fossil fuel of choice.

The Liberal Party took a major step towards tackling its gender problem by electing Sussan Ley, the MP for Farrer, which is based on Albury and Griffith, as its first woman leader, narrowly defeating Angus Taylor, 29 votes to 25.

Ted O’Brien was elected overwhelmingly as deputy leader, defeating the unknown Phil Thompson 38 to 16.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ic9G6MvPtQM&ab_channel=TheSaturdayPaper

O’Brien, architect of the Coalition’s disastrous nuclear power policy, is a progressive in some areas and strongly committed to zero fossil fuel emissions by 2050. This will put him in conflict with the Nationals, who are keen to junk the 2050 target.

The election results from Tasmania’s five seats in the House of Representatives were extraordinary.

The government took unprecedented action, supported by the opposition, in legislating to exempt industrial-scale salmon farming from environmental protections. The decision, particularly affecting the formerly pristine waters of Macquarie Harbour, in the Braddon electorate, came under bitter attack, including a scathing denunciation by writer Richard Flanagan.

Labor might think this paid off. Anne Urquhart resigned from the Senate to contest Braddon and won with a 17.1 per cent swing. The ALP secured a 10.5 per cent swing in Lyons and 9.3 per cent in Bass, defeating Bridget Archer. Yet in Franklin the main challenge came from an environmentalist independent, while in Clark, based on Hobart, independent Andrew Wilkie secured a vote after preferences of 70.27 per cent, against 29.73 per cent for the ALP.

This raises a serious question: Was it worth making an unconscionable Faustian bargain to defeat the Coalition? What does it mean for the Maugean skate and millions of dead fish washing up on beaches and the toxic poisoning of seagrass beds?

In Western Australia, concessions to the mining industry, despite its spotty record, helped Labor gain seats.

However, there was a swing against Labor of 7.3 per cent in the mining seat of O’Connor, which includes Kalgoorlie.

Even more striking was the swing of 14.25 per cent against the ALP in the once-safe seat of Calwell, including Broadmeadows and Craigieburn, on the edges of Melbourne. In the NSW seats of Blaxland and Watson, Muslim Voices candidates ran second to the ALP.

I was deeply disturbed by the dumping of Mark Dreyfus as attorney-general and Ed Husic as minister for industry and science – both victims of the Right faction in Anthony Albanese’s cabinet reshuffle.

Dreyfus was an outstanding attorney-general, making exemplary judicial appointments, creating new structures and transforming the concept of transparency and accountability in our system. He brought balance and sensitivity to international issues.

Ed Husic has been the best minister for science since 1990, reading widely and deeply, seeking the best advice, taking the very long view, passionately supporting blue-sky research and offering a commanding grasp of AI and its potential threats.

As Australia evolves as a multicultural, multi-faith society, it is particularly upsetting that a Jew and a Muslim should be escorted to the exit. Factions were created as a useful tool for conflict resolution on policy but have become instruments of power and patronage. With the factions, the “iron law of arithmetic”, as John Howard once put it, is decisive.

During the election campaign, Labor engaged, very successfully, with voters. After winning, the doors slam shut and the factions do the numbers. The papal conclave was an open house compared with this.

In the final weeks of the campaign, Antony Albanese was at his most powerful and convincing, well ahead of Dutton. He was active during the Queensland floods, dealing well with United States President Donald Trump, who indicated he had never heard of Dutton, and offered a pitch-perfect reaction to the death of Pope Francis.

Albanese now has immense moral authority and I hope he uses it. He has the power to open up dark places in the ALP, to be a world leader on climate change, to be a major tax reformer and to work closely with Mark Carney, Keir Starmer and other like-minded leaders in building a better planet.

He can do it. We deserve it and so does the great globe itself.

This article was first published in the print edition of The Saturday Paper on May 17, 2025 as "My last election".

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