Comment

Paul Bongiorno
Squaring the Oval Office

If news is what the media reports, the dominant issue gripping the nation in the past seven days is something that hasn’t yet happened: namely Anthony Albanese’s first face-to-face meeting with Donald Trump.

This was brought home with a thud to the prime minister on Tuesday, when he appeared on major morning television programs to sell his government’s raft of cost-of-living measures triggered by the new financial year.

The Nine Network’s Karl Stefanovic was typical when, off the top, he noted that every leader of the so-called Quad had met the United States president, except Australia’s. “It’s all gotten a little bit embarrassing, hasn’t it?” Stefanovic asked. “Pretty simple question. When are you going to meet The Donald?”

Albanese, who has significantly tightened his messaging in interviews, dismissed the suggestion it was embarrassing. He assured Stefanovic and Today’s viewers, “We will meet when we meet in coming months.”

In another interview, on ABC TV, Albanese rejected speculation he was wary about meeting the US president in the Oval Office in case Trump pulls “a Zelensky” on him. He said where the meeting takes place is less important than what comes out of the meeting.

In all his interviews Albanese quickly pivoted to the raft of voter-friendly measures he wanted to highlight. Gone was the Albanese of old, who used to wing it, more often than not.

The concern over the Trump meeting was influenced by the hyperbole coming from the opposition and supported by the usual suspects in the media.

Shadow defence minister Angus Taylor, who lifted his profile in the week that his leader, Sussan Ley, went on leave, accused Albanese of “a complete failure to manage our ... strategic relationship”.

Taylor was particularly critical of Labor’s failure “to stand with our allies, with serious commitments” on lifting defence expenditure to Europe’s 5 per cent or the 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product urged by the American defence secretary.

The thinness of this line of attack was demonstrated when Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong met not only her Quad counterparts in Washington, DC, on Wednesday, but also had a subsequent one-on-one meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Wong told journalists after her meeting that the secretary of state “again expressed his regret for the meeting that was scheduled for the G7 having to be rescheduled”. She said Rubio and herself “both look forward to the leaders meeting”.

The foreign minister reminded the media this was her second trip to the US capital this year. The first was when she had the rare honour as a foreign minister to be invited to the inauguration of the president.

Wong dismissed any suggestions that our ambassador in Washington, Kevin Rudd, was an obstacle to good relations between the US and Australia. Rudd, who according to a government source in Washington “never sleeps”, was instrumental in securing the invitation to the inauguration.

Wong is not the only senior minister to meet their American counterpart, either in Washington or at key international meetings. The treasurer, defence minister and trade minister have all had personal meetings in the very early days of the second Trump administration.

Despite some on Capitol Hill suggesting otherwise, Rudd’s assiduous diplomacy is credited by Wong for this access.

Albanese says that “at the first possible opportunity” he will build on the constructive dialogue he has had in three phone calls with Trump. That opportunity could come at the Quad summit in India, to be held within a couple of months.

The government is incredulous at reports that Albanese’s failure to meet the president, and his refusal to commit to a specific increased percentage of GDP for defence spending, have cruelled Australia’s ability to purchase missiles from the US. “It’s made up,” was one insider’s view.

Albanese says he will continue to examine Australia’s defence spending, while pointing out his government has allocated more funding than any other since Federation. Wong says Rubio did not mention Australia’s defence spending in their discussions.

Both Albanese and Wong have repeated their commitment to AUKUS, with the foreign minister heartened by the positive vibes she was getting from Rubio in her meeting. Wong says the agreement is long term and will involve many different administrations and Australian governments in the future.

Here, though, the government and the opposition may be increasingly out of step with public opinion on the commitment to the US alliance. The Trump presidency is fuelling scepticism, if not outright disbelief, in the ongoing value of it.

Recent polling by The Australia Institute has found 57 per cent support the need for a parliamentary inquiry into AUKUS, with 54 per cent supporting a more independent foreign policy over a closer alliance with the US. This flies in the face of the China hawks and their Coalition cheer squad, now led by Angus Taylor.

To date, Albanese has proved to be one of the staunchest defenders of the status quo. The challenge facing the prime minister is Trump’s complete disregard for anything he doesn’t judge to be in his or the US’s interest. This includes treaties with Canada and Mexico, which he himself put in place in his first presidential term.

Albanese, Wong and Minister for Trade Don Farrell have an almost impossible task convincing the president he has any obligation to the two-decade-old free trade agreement between our two nations. They argue this should mean zero tariffs, because we do not impose any and have a trade deficit with the US.

Independent economist Saul Eslake says Albanese is right not to rush into any meeting with Trump over the president’s so-called “reciprocal tariffs”.

Eslake agrees with Albanese’s view that Australia at 10 per cent suffers the lowest imposition of any country and says “it’s highly unlikely anyone will get less than that”.

Eslake says Australia shouldn’t try too hard and certainly shouldn’t give too much away in any negotiations with the president. “Those who have gone crawling to Washington to, in Trump’s charming language, ‘kiss his arse’, don’t have too much to show for their efforts,” he says.

Whether Trump is interested in Albanese’s argument that tariffs “are self-harm” is extremely doubtful in light of the passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” plunging America into multitrillion-dollar deficits. The tariffs are, after all, a tax on imports paid by American consumers and Trump expects them to help offset his massive generosity to billionaires in the bill.

Albanese says Australia bearing the lowest tariff rate gives it a competitive advantage against others on higher rates, such as Europe and the Asian nations. On Today he pointed out that Australia’s beef exports “were up 91 per cent by value when it comes to April this year, compared with April last year when there weren’t any tariffs”.

Despite the noise from the neo-conservatives, it is useful to keep a sense of proportion about where we stand with the US. Sure, it is our major strategic partner, but it’s a long way from our major economic partner.

The US accounts for only about 4.5 per cent of our total merchandise exports. Eslake says this is far less than China, with more than 36 per cent, and also less than Japan, Korea, South-East Asia and India.

US negotiators are reportedly asking countries to impose trade barriers on China in exchange for concessions on the US’s proposed tariffs. As Eslake asks, “Why on earth would we want to make it harder to sell stuff to a country that takes 36 per cent of our exports, in order to make it easier to sell stuff to a country that only takes 4 per cent of our exports?”

Albanese has already drawn several lines in the sand that Australia will not cross to gain more favourable treatment, initially on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme and our biosecurity laws. Imposing tariffs on China is another one. Australia will not abandon its commitment and advocacy of open, rules-based trade.

Albanese and his senior ministers are keen not to poke Trump in the eye but, according to a government source, Australia will continue to uphold its commitments outlined in free trade agreements with both the US and China.

According to Roy Morgan Research, Albanese’s honeymoon is every bit as impressive as the one he enjoyed after his first election win, with him polling 57.5 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.

Little wonder he is unfazed by his opponents, who at this stage appear to be apologists for the mercurial US president.

This article was first published in the print edition of The Saturday Paper on July 4, 2025 as "Squaring the Oval Office".

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