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The Coalition is struggling to win support from women – a problem raised in a review of its last election defeat that has only grown worse under Peter Dutton’s leadership. By Bri Lee.
The Coalition’s troubled relationship with women
In hindsight, the Liberal Party leadership spill of August 2018 was not only a sliding doors moment for the party but also a blazing warning to its female members. Julie Bishop, at the time one of the most popular politicians in the country – and in the party – had been serving as foreign affairs minister with a solid reputation as a respected, moderate leader. She had decided to run only with guaranteed support, and those assurances had been given.
She flunked the challenge in the first round, with just 11 votes.
Her moderate allies, not trusting that the rest of the party would back Bishop, had done a deal for “anyone but Dutton”. The result was Scott Morrison by default. Within a year, the #MeToo wave had engulfed Parliament House and the teal independents were stepping up to the challenge.
Almost seven years later, Peter Dutton is at the helm, fighting an election in which women seem no more ready to embrace the party. It’s strange, given the party has long been aware of the problem. Following the Coalition’s 2022 rout, it commissioned a report, hoping for some lessons among the ashes. “Review of the 2022 Federal Election”, co-authored by former federal director of the Liberal Party Brian Loughnane and current Liberal Senator Jane Hume, offered 49 recommendations to turn the party’s fortunes around. It found “[a] significant number of submissions … cited the Liberal Party’s declining vote among women as a decisive factor” in the loss, amid a perception that “the Prime Minister was not attuned to the concerns of women and was unresponsive to issues of importance to them”.
A majority of women preferred Labor in all age segments (18-34, 35-54 and 55+) and the report noted: “Liberal defectors in ‘Teal seats’ were highly likely to agree with the statement that ‘the treatment or attitude toward women within the Liberal Party had a strong influence on my vote’.”
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It hasn’t always been this way, says Rebecca Huntley, an author and director of research at national data and strategy agency 89 Degrees East. Up until the 1980s, women were more likely to vote Liberal, as they considered the Labor Party’s focus on labour rights less relevant to them. Since then, as more women finished school, attended university and joined the workforce, they have been much more likely to see progressive parties as “in tune with the challenges they face”, says Huntley.
The Labor Party responded to that shift by acting on goals and quotas for female representation. By contrast, for the Liberals, Tony Abbott’s prime ministership was an “inflection point”, she says. In her 20 years as a social researcher, Huntley says, responses to Abbott were “the only time in focus groups where people were like, he is weird. He’s got a 1950s view of the world.”
The Coalition’s MP gender split is 80 per cent men to 20 per cent women. The 2022 post-election report recommended that the party aim for 50 per cent female representation in parliament, in Liberal branches and the executive within a decade. It also advised there be “a much larger number of high-quality female candidates contesting key, winnable seats at the next election”.
In the 2025 race, Coalition women are not only outnumbered two to one by male candidates, 84 per cent of them are running in risky, “glass cliff” seats. That’s according to a report just published by a group of Australian National University researchers for The Global Institute for Women’s Leadership.
Research Lech Blaine gathered for his 2024 Quarterly Essay on Dutton suggested the Liberal Party’s 2022 election failure was due in part to the view that safe seats were “seats for men” – for party leaders, politicians with real work to do. Whereas women were good in marginal seats because they love talking to people.
Former Liberal member for Chisholm Julia Banks, who won that swing seat in 2016, famously said that entering politics felt like “stepping back in time”.
Independent MP Allegra Spender is a case study in missed opportunities for the Liberal Party. Her father and grandfather were both Liberal men, but in 2022 she won her seat of Wentworth – held almost exclusively by the conservatives since Federation – as a teal. A former McKinsey consultant and analyst in the British Treasury, she wanted to address government inaction on climate change.
Regarding Spender and fellow teal MP Kate Chaney, also from a conservative dynasty, Blaine asked, “how is the Liberal Party in that period not identifying these people and pre-selecting them as candidates?”
Even if the party were to commit to a pipeline of diverse talent, it would take at least 10 to 15 years for it to be reflected in their candidates, says Rebecca Huntley. “For a talented, smart, charismatic woman in her 20s, likely with a job at a consultancy firm, they’re going to see far more sources of mentorship and support in corporate Australia than in the Liberal Party.”
The 2022 review advised the Liberal Party to establish such a pipeline – a network “with the aim of promoting greater female representation in Parliament, and provide opportunities and avenues for continued involvement for professional women associated with the Party.” The result was the Margaret Guilfoyle Network, named for the first woman in Australia to hold a cabinet-level portfolio, as a minister in the Fraser government.
The network’s soft launch didn’t come until March 2024, with intimate events in several cities, and an Instagram post on Hume’s account promising more details “in due course, including information about upcoming subscriber-only events”. It costs between $50 and $150 to join.
Deputy Liberal leader Sussan Ley and Senator Jane Hume both declined requests for interviews with The Saturday Paper. Asked whether the Margaret Guilfoyle Network has run any internships, mentorships or exchanges, and whether the party had been able to implement the recommendations of the 2022 report, Ley’s office responded with a statement, published here in full:
“This election is a choice about who can better manage the economy and help Australians get ahead. Global uncertainty and recent volatility on financial markets highlights that strong economic management is more important than ever. The Coalition has an experienced team with an economic plan to deliver a stronger economy for all Australians.
“We know that women bear the brunt of economic distress and that all too often, they suffer economic consequences at a disproportionately higher rate. That’s why we can’t afford to continue on our current path. Inflation is higher and interest rates are up sharply, we’ve had the largest fall in living standards in history, power bills, fuel, food and insurance costs are all higher, housing is unaffordable, and our country is less safe.
“Our positive plan to cut the fuel tax by 25 cents a litre, introduce the cost-of-living tax offset which will see more than 10 million Australian taxpayers benefit to the tune of up to $1,200 and our initiatives to restore the dream of home ownership will resonate with women and men who are doing it so tough.”
The Coalition’s struggle to appeal to women in this election campaign is perhaps most apparent in its about-turn on working from home. Hume last month expressed the “expectation of a Dutton Liberal government that all members of the APS [Australian Public Service] work from the office five days a week”. The public took that to mean the private sector would be encouraged to follow suit – an impression reinforced by Labor. Dutton dropped the policy this month. A RedBridge Group poll showed that women overwhelmingly disliked it, and were less likely than men to vote for the Coalition.
Also pared back is the Coalition’s proposal to cut 41,000 public service jobs, which mimicked Elon Musk’s efficiency crusade in the US that most Australians find concerning. Australia’s public service is more than 60 per cent women – far above the national average of workforce participation by gender.
Dutton also had to dump the former Liberal candidate for Whitlam, Benjamin Britton, following his comments on Radio 2GB regarding women in the military: “My position is the same as Andrew Hastie, the shadow minister for defence and the great [former Liberal senator] Jim Molan, that women should not serve specifically in combat roles, specifically in the army itself.”
Childcare has proved a weak spot for the Coalition. Dutton’s past investments in childcare businesses – which the family has since divested – have sat uneasily with news stories about misconduct and exploitation in the sector. Hume was a vocal opponent of Labor’s move to scrap the so-called “activity test” – which scales subsidies according to parents’ other paid and unpaid work – in favour of a more universal option. That’s despite the Productivity Commission having highlighted the benefit for families with children most disadvantaged under the current system.
Dutton’s most discernible pitch to women has been the tough-on-crime stance that has long been his touchstone. Lech Blaine says the Liberal leader was profoundly shaped by his experiences as a police officer responding to domestic and family violence, sexual assault and abuse. The result, however, is paternalism, rather than a willingness to genuinely engage, Blaine says. At the Liberals’ official campaign launch, Sussan Ley said Dutton “has been the thin blue line protecting women and children from harm”. It’s not a line that has worked for young or university-educated women.
The party’s 2022 report concluded that, “Immediately following the election, a clear majority of Australians (across different electorates) agreed with the statement that ‘the Liberal Party has fallen behind the views of middle Australia’.”
That view is likely compounded now. Most moderate Liberals either lost their seats to teals at the last election – most notably former treasurer Josh Frydenberg – or are leaving. Both Simon Birmingham and Paul Fletcher – two of the most senior members of the moderate faction of the Liberal Party – announced their exits in late 2024. Fletcher’s seat is being contested by Nicolette Boele, a teal who almost won in 2022 and is a strong contender this time around.
Kate Chaney’s uncle, former Liberal Party senator for Western Australia Fred Chaney, wrote in support of her 2022 campaign that the Liberal Party had “lost its way”.
If the party needs more women to find its way, it has got much work to do.
This article was first published in the print edition of The Saturday Paper on April 19, 2025 as "Belittled women".
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