World
The so-called 12-day war. Mixed signals on nuclear fallout. Questions about the survival of Iran regime. MAGA supporters and the politics of war. By Jonathan Pearlman.
Trump strikes, then claims peace in Iran–Israel conflict
The 12-day war
United States President Donald Trump launched a surprise intervention in the Israel–Iran war but then swiftly announced a ceasefire this week, as questions emerged about whether he had – as he claimed – “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Following Trump’s decision to enter the war last weekend and attack Iran’s three main nuclear facilities, Iran on Monday fired about 14 missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest American base in the Middle East. But Iran, seeking to avoid escalation, gave early warning of its attack. Thirteen missiles were intercepted and one went off target. Trump then urged calm, saying: “They’ve gotten it all out of their system.”
Following the Iranian attack, Trump secured the backing of Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for a ceasefire and asked Qatar’s emir to contact Iranian officials, who also agreed to end the war.
“This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t,” Trump said on social media.
And so marked the apparent end of what Trump called the 12-day war – an all-out conflict between two of the region’s most powerful nations.
Israel launched the war on June 13, using planes and drones to strike Iranian nuclear sites, military installations and nuclear scientists. Israel quickly took effective control of Iran’s airspace, freely attacking nuclear and military targets as well as energy facilities and the state broadcaster. Meanwhile, Iran sent drones and barrages of ballistic missiles at Israeli cities; an estimated 10 per cent of Iran’s 550 missiles evaded Israeli interceptors.
As the war ground on, Israel repeatedly hit Iran’s nuclear sites but lacked the hardware to damage an underground facility, Fordo, which was built beneath a mountain.
Eventually, last Sunday, Trump deployed American B-2 bombers, equipped with 14,000-kilogram bombs, to attack Fordo, as well as facilities at Natanz and Isfahan.
The 12 days of war killed 627 people in Iran, according to Iranian officials, although the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) said 1054 people were killed and 4476 injured. Israeli officials said 28 people in Israel were killed and 3238 hospitalised.
On Tuesday, Trump castigated Israel and Iran for reportedly breaking the ceasefire soon after it came into effect. But the ceasefire later held.
“We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing,” Trump told reporters.
Nuclear fallout
The US and Israel claimed success this week in destroying Iran’s nuclear program despite initial American assessments that the attacks may have set back the program by only months.
Echoing Trump’s claim that Iran’s facilities had been obliterated, Netanyahu said in a video statement on Tuesday: “We sent Iran’s nuclear program down the drain.”
But an initial classified assessment by the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency reportedly found that the US strikes failed to destroy two of the targeted sites.
It said bombs sealed off the entrances of the sites at Fordo and Isfahan but did not collapse their underground chambers and that some centrifuges used to enrich uranium remained intact. US intelligence officials also reportedly assessed that Iran had removed most of its enriched uranium from the sites and the whereabouts of the stockpile were unknown.
Before the war, Iran was believed to have about 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 per cent purity, which is close to weapons-grade levels.
Trump dismissed the intelligence findings, saying CNN and The New York Times had “teamed up to demean one of the most successful military strikes in history”.
Iran has sent mixed signals about whether it will consider withdrawing from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which would block inspectors from monitoring its program. North Korea is the only country to have left the treaty, though Israel, India and Pakistan – which are all believed to have nuclear weapons – never signed up to it.
Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on Monday he believed the payload used to bomb Fordo, and the vibration-sensitive nature of centrifuges, meant “very significant damage is expected to have occurred”.
But he added: “No one, including the IAEA, is in a position to have fully assessed the underground damage at Fordo.”
Regime change
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian claimed victory this week, saying Israel had failed to destroy Iran’s nuclear sites or “incite unrest”.
“While the terrorist enemy initiated this imposed war, its conclusion was determined by the will and strength of the great Iranian nation,” he said.
But the damage to Iran’s costly nuclear program, and the deaths of its military leaders, have prompted questions about the survival of the regime, which has faced bouts of popular unrest in recent years as the economy has slumped and repression has worsened.
According to HRANA, Iranian authorities arrested 823 people on security and political charges during the war – including 286 for expressing opinions – and executed at least seven accused of treason.
Analysts said the regime could now face a power vacuum and infighting and may tighten security amid fears of new public protests.
Sanam Vakil, of Chatham House, told the Dow Jones newswire there was an increased risk of repression of the regime’s potential opponents.
“The regime will definitely go after infiltrators and purge from within,” he said.
Politics of war
Trump’s intervention in the war was condemned by many of his MAGA supporters, who accused him of breaching his promise to avoid entangling the US military in Middle East conflicts.
Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican member of congress and staunch Trump supporter, said in a post on X: “It feels like a complete bait and switch to please the neocons, warmongers, military industrial complex contracts.”
But the sudden announcement of a ceasefire quietened many of Trump’s critics, especially as it demonstrated the president’s unpredictability, which many in the MAGA movement view as a virtue.
After the ceasefire, Greene wrote: “Thank you, President Trump, for pursuing peace!”
In Israel, the war, which had strong public approval, raised the prospect of rescuing the political career of Prime Minister Netanyahu, who is deeply unpopular.
A Channel 12 poll in Israel this week found that Netanyahu’s Likud party had gained in popularity, but his ruling coalition still trailed the anti-Netanyahu bloc and was set to win just 49 of 120 seats. Netanyahu’s personal approval rating, however, improved and he held a 38 to 35 per cent lead as preferred prime minister over his main rival, Naftali Bennett.
But Netanyahu must still contend with the 20-month-old war in Gaza, where – unlike in the Iran conflict – he has not stated a clear plan or goal, other than achieving “total victory” against Hamas.
Israel’s campaign continues to take a devastating toll in Gaza. Local officials on Tuesday said 19 people were killed by Israeli troops near an aid distribution centre and 21 were killed by an air strike and gunfire. Israel said seven soldiers were killed when their vehicle was bombed.
Analysts said the war with Iran may leave Netanyahu in a stronger position to persuade his far-right coalition members to back an end to the conflict in Gaza.
Israeli journalist Chaim Levinson wrote in Haaretz: “Netanyahu’s standing has risen … This gives Netanyahu greater room to manoeuvre, both to end the Gaza war and to head into elections riding a victory narrative.”
This article was first published in the print edition of The Saturday Paper on June 28, 2025 as "Trump strikes, then claims peace in Iran–Israel conflict".
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